IC Insights has adjusted its 2022 forecast for global semiconductor capital spending, with data now showing growth of 21% this year, with total spending expected to be $185.5 billion. That figure is down from forecasts earlier this year of $190.4 billion in total, up 24 percent.
Still, the revised forecast represents the highest spending in the history of the semiconductor industry. If industry capital spending rises by double digits this year as expected, it would mark the first three consecutive years of double-digit capital spending growth in the semiconductor industry since 1993-1995.
That said, 2020-2022 is expected to be the first three years of sustained double-digit growth in semiconductor capital spending since 1993-1995.
In the first half of this year, fab utilization at many integrated device manufacturers (IDMs) was still well above 90%, and many semiconductor foundries were at 100%, as orders remained strong during the post-pandemic economic recovery.
Two-year semiconductor capital expenditures in 2021 and 2022 are now expected to total $338.6 billion. IDMs and foundries are investing heavily in new manufacturing capabilities for logic and memory devices using leading-edge process technologies. However, strong demand and persistent shortages of many other important chips such as power semiconductors, analog ICs, and various MCUs have led suppliers to increase their manufacturing capabilities for these products as well.
In addition, semiconductor observation media SEMI pointed out that despite the weak signal in the market, the demand for automotive MCUs and MPUs is still strong.
Demand for automotive MCUs and MPUs is still rising, according to OSATs and chip packaging material suppliers in the semiconductor supply chain, SEMI said. According to industry sources, leading OSAT companies (outsourcing semiconductor packaging and testing companies), including ASE, have received back-end outsourcing orders for automotive MCUs in the next two quarters from international IDMs.
However, the source also said that when back-end suppliers negotiated 2023 orders with IDMs in the United States, Japan and Europe, IDMs were found to be cautious about their business prospects in the second half of 2023. It is expected that in the second half of 2023, automotive chip IDM companies will slightly reduce outsourcing back-end orders, but whether the supply and demand relationship of automotive MCUs and MPUs can be reversed in the second half of 2023 is still unknown.
In addition to the above positive information, there are still some uncertainties such as dark clouds hanging over the semiconductor industry.
Soaring inflation and a rapidly slowing global economy led semiconductor makers to reassess their otherwise aggressive expansion plans by mid-year. Indeed, several (but not all) suppliers, notably many of the leading DRAM and flash memory manufacturers, have announced cuts to their capex budgets for this year. And more suppliers pointed to the industry digesting three years of strong spending and assessing capacity needs amid slowing economic growth, expecting them to cut capital spending in 2023.
Source：Internet
