Now that the semiconductor cycle is going down, multiple segments of the semiconductor industry chain have clearly entered the inventory adjustment cycle. However, driven by the surge in demand for the two mainstream applications of electric vehicles and solar photovoltaics, IGBTs (insulated gate bipolar transistors) have recently been out of stock to a large extent and prices have continued to rise.
1. The supply of IGBT is in short supply, and the price of OEMs has risen
Since the shortage of automotive chips in 2020, IGBTs have been in short supply. In the second half of 2022, it will even surpass the shortage of automotive MCUs and become the biggest "difficulty" affecting the expansion of automotive production.
According to media reports at the beginning of this year, Hanlei Group raised the OEM price of IGBT production lines by about 10% at the beginning of the year. It is reported that Hanlei holds a large order from Infineon, the leader of IGBT chip components. When the quotations of wafer foundries are generally lowered, Hanlei Group bucks the trend and raises prices, which also shows the extent of the market shortage.
According to the "2023 Q1 Chip Market Report" data released by Future Electronics on February 17, 2023, ST (STMicroelectronics), Microsemi (Microsemi), Infineon (Infineon), IXYS (Isses) , Fairchild (Fairchild Semiconductor), the delivery period of IGBT Q1 of the five major brands is basically the same as that of Q4 in 2022, and the delivery period is still tight, with a maximum of 54 weeks.
Specifically, in the first quarter of 2023, ST’s IGBT delivery period is 47-52 weeks, Microsemi’s IGBT delivery period is 42-52 weeks, IXYS’ IGBT delivery period is 50-54 weeks, and Infineon’s IGBT delivery period is 50-54 weeks. The delivery period of Fairchild's IGBT is 39-52 weeks. However, the delivery period and price trends of these five major brands are all stable, and there is no upward trend.
There are two main reasons for the shortage of IGBTs. One is that the proportion of IGBTs used in solar inverters has increased significantly. The other is that the semiconductor industry is currently undergoing an adjustment period. Not only is production capacity limited, but many production capacities have been taken away by electric vehicle manufacturers. Down, resulting in a large shortage of IGBT.
With the development of new energy vehicles, the demand for high voltage has increased, and IGBTs have become the focus of industrial development. The number of IGBTs used in an electric vehicle is as high as hundreds, which is 7 to 10 times that of traditional fuel vehicles. For industrial purposes, there are green power applications such as AC servo motors, frequency converters, wind power and solar power generation, and for high-voltage applications such as high-speed railways and other rail transportation and power grid applications.
2. After IGBT, SiC becomes the next opportunity for automotive semiconductor manufacturers
At present, SiC power components are a major dependent technology of various electric vehicles, and OEMs are scrambling to bind SiC supply in the next few years, and IGBT suppliers are no exception.
Silicon carbide has superior electrical properties that cannot be matched by traditional silicon materials. The replacement of silicon-based IGBTs by silicon carbide is an irreversible trend, especially under the 800V charging architecture, silicon-based IGBTs have reached the limit of performance, and it is difficult to meet the technical requirements of the main drive inverter. From the perspective of downstream applications, silicon carbide components are the core components that electric vehicle manufacturers must consider in the future. In addition, photovoltaic energy storage scenarios are also accelerating development. Therefore, the silicon carbide market will remain in short supply in recent years, and the industry's popularity will not decrease.
With the increasing number of cooperation projects between ON Semiconductor and Infineon and automobile and energy companies, the top two applications of silicon carbide power devices are in the fields of new energy vehicles and renewable energy, which will reach US$1.09 billion and US$210 million in 2022 respectively. US dollars, accounting for about 67.4% and 13.1% of the overall market value of silicon carbide power devices. By 2023, the overall market value of silicon carbide power devices will reach US$2.28 billion, an annual growth of 41.4%.
By 2026, the market value of silicon carbide power devices is expected to reach US$5.33 billion. Mainstream applications still rely heavily on electric vehicles and renewable energy. The output value of electric vehicles can reach US$3.98 billion, with a compound annual growth rate of about 38%; renewable energy can reach US$410 million, with a compound annual growth rate of about 19%.
At present, IGBT is mainly dominated by European and Japanese manufacturers, with Infineon having the highest market share. In addition, Japan’s Fuji Electric, ON Semiconductor, Toshiba, and STMicroelectronics are also major suppliers. These major manufacturers have increased their SiC layouts in recent years. .
Infineon
In 2023, Infineon will focus on SiC, BMS, and MCU to develop markets.
On February 16, the company announced that it will invest 5 billion euros to build a 12-inch wafer fab in Dresden, Germany. It is reported that the new analog/mixed-signal technology and power semiconductor plant is planned to be put into operation in 2026, and the analog/mixed-signal components and power semiconductors it produces will be mainly used in automotive and industrial applications.
Renesas Electronics
Renesas Electronics announced in May last year that it would invest 90 billion yen in the Kofu plant (Kai City, Yamanashi Prefecture), which was closed in October 2014, with the goal of restoring its 300mm power semiconductor production line in 2024 to produce products including IGBTs and power MOSFETs .
In August 2022, Renesas Electronics announced that for next-generation electric vehicle inverter applications, AE5-generation IGBT products will begin mass production on the 200mm and 300mm wafer lines at Renesas’ Naka plant in Japan in the first half of 2023.
STMicroelectronics
STMicroelectronics announced in October last year that it will build a silicon carbide fab worth 730 million euros in Italy. According to reports, this will be the first factory in Europe to mass-produce 15mm SiC epitaxial substrates, which integrates all steps in the production process. Looking ahead, ST is committed to developing 200mm wafers in the future.
Onsemi
On February 11, ON Semiconductor officially took over a 12-inch factory in New York from GF, and promised to invest $1.3 billion in it. ON Semiconductor said that the factory will produce chips that support electric vehicles, electric vehicle charging and energy infrastructure, which will enable the company to accelerate growth in the megatrends of vehicle electrification, ADAS, energy infrastructure and factory automation.
ON Semiconductor CEO Hassane El-Khoury pointed out that in the next three years, ON Semiconductor will provide SiC with a committed revenue of US$4 billion, about US$1 billion in 2023, and may grow by about 30% in 2024 and 2025, to $1.7 billion. To meet the goal, ON Semiconductor has doubled the capacity of its fabs producing SiC and plans to double again in 2023 and then again in 2024.
As IGBT suppliers continue to develop SiC and gradually alleviate the current shortage of power semiconductors, new technologies will bring new developments to the power semiconductor market.
