At present, the semiconductor market as a whole is in recession, especially the memory market. Due to oversupply, the unit price has dropped. On the other hand, there is a constant shortage of semiconductors in the automotive industry; some semiconductors are in excess and others are in short supply.
Semiconductor market size, negative growth for 7 consecutive months
According to statistics, the global semiconductor market size in January 2023 fell by 20.1% year-on-year, which was worse than the 18.1% decline in December 2022. Negative growth for 7 consecutive months starting from July 2022, and double-digit negative growth for 3 consecutive months starting from November 2022.
In particular, the memory market fell 58.6% in January 2023, worse than the 46.2% decline in December 2022. Actual shipments of DRAM and NAND flash in January 2023 were about 40% lower than the previous month. With excess supply capacity, memory manufacturers can only choose to "hold excess inventory" or "release products through price cuts". There are more and more reports about the decline in memory unit prices, but the decline has not been that great. Price reductions are expected to accelerate from now on.
The memory market has not improved so far. In addition to the sluggish demand for personal computers and smart phones, the performance of major IT manufacturers such as GAFA is also deteriorating.
Originally, starting from 2021, when the shortage of semiconductors began to attract attention as a social problem, the shortage was semiconductor products that did not require cutting-edge technology, such as MCU, analog and discrete, not memory. So, besides memory, what is the status of other products?
From "shortage" to "surplus"
Looking at the MCU market, the performance in January 2023 increased by 21.9% year-on-year, exceeding the growth rate of 14.8% in December 2022. Especially for automotive MCUs, sales in January 2023 increased by 28.2%, and sales in December 2022 increased by 25.8%. However, the shortage problem may be coming to an end, and the long delivery dates are starting to normalize.
The analog market fell into negative growth after a year-on-year decline of 4.8% in January 2023 and a year-on-year increase of 4.4% in December 2022. The general analog market turned negative from 8.1% growth in January 2023 and 3.1% growth in December 2022, but the automotive analog market will grow 28.1% in January 2023. Not as high as 36.4% in December 2022, but very good.
General-purpose analog products are suitable for a variety of applications, and during the COVID-19 crisis, there are shortages everywhere. In cars, smart keys are equipped with some kind of general-purpose analog chip, which is still in short supply. General-purpose analog chips also have various uses other than in-vehicle use, so there may be temporary shortages due to temporary expansion of demand.
The shortage of power transistors, the key to improvement is Infineon
Small-signal transistors used for current control below 1W fell by 31.5% in January 2023, which is much smaller than the 25.6% decline in December 2022. In January 2023, power transistors used for current control above 1W will increase by 13.9%, which is not as good as the 16.1% in December 2022, but the trend is good.
Discrete devices are highly versatile semiconductors with a wide range of applications, so they are products that are likely to generate temporary demand. The decline from December 2022 to January 2023 is believed to be the result of a temporary disappearance of demand.
Power transistors are also used in various applications, and the demand for power transistors is rapidly increasing due to the electrification of automobiles. The longer lead times for hybrid vehicles show that the power transistor race is on.
Infineon Technologies, which has the highest market share in the industry, originally planned to start operating a 300mm wafer production line dedicated to power transistors from 2021, but the fact that it did not start until 2022 is the biggest factor in the short supply of power transistors.
